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THE BLACK SWAN


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Sinopse

Black Swans underlie almost everything, from the rise of religions, to events in our own personal lives. A Black Swan is a highly improbable event with three principle characteristics - it is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. And why do we always ignore the phenomenon of Black Swans until after they occur? As Nassim Nicholas Taleb reveals, we are hard-wired not to truly estimate risk, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'. In this book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and shows us how to face the world.

Detalhes do Produto

    • Ano:  2008
    • País de Produção: United Kingdom
    • Código de Barras:  9780141034591
    • ISBN:  0141034599
    • Encadernação:  BROCHURA
    • Complemento:  NENHUM
    • Nº de Páginas:  400

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